Big moves

One of the biggest trades I can remember with Halladay going to Philly and Cliff Lee to Seattle. Rare to see two true aces swapped around like that. More important probably to the Cardinals was Boston signing Lackey and Mike Cameron. This is important because it puts the Red Sox out of the running for Matt Holliday. Right now, it seems like we might only be bidding against ourselves for Holliday, because no other team has stepped forward. The Yankees seem unlikely to do so having already added Granderson to the outfield. The only other possibilities seem to be the Mets and the Angels. Both have denied interest to this point though. The Mets have made an offer to Bay, and could get involved on Holliday, but they seem to think (and I believe rightly so) that Matt Holliday is a gap power hitter who would struggle with the spacious power alleys of Citi Field, whereas Bay is more of pull hitter who could hit homeruns there. The Angels I think are the team to be more wary of, though they seem to be more in need of starting pitching at this point than an outfielder and have publically said they are not after a big bat this offseason. After losing Lackey and Figgins, however, they may feel the need to do something big though. All in all, I feel much better about our prospects of signing Holliday at a reasonable rate than I did a few days ago, and Scott Boras has too feel a lot worse about getting his client a huge deal, so that's definitely a good thing.



-Trey

Winter Ramblings

Man, it's been a long time since anything has been posted on this blog. I have no excuse either, because there actually has been some interesting things happening in the Cardinal nation, I've just been too lazy to write about them. So let's play catch-up:

On the NL Cy Young Award: So did Carpenter and Wainwright steal votes from one another: yeah, probably, but it's also hard to really argue that one of them got for sure robbed. There were three equally deserving candidates. I would've gone with Wainwright for his body of work. He was a horse. Carp was justifiably punished I think for missing the first month of the season. Lincecum kinda was the easy choice. He had great numbers and was there the whole year for a winning team. Hard to argue with that.

On the NL MVP: Obviously, it would've been an all-time shock had Albert not won it. It's nice to see so many talk about him now as the hands-down best player the game and as a guy that will likely go down as the best right-handed hitter of all time.

On Matt Holliday: Though it seems that the Cardinals front office still holds-out hope of signing him, the fan base is starting to feel more realistically that we don't have much of a shot. Boras wants a Texiera-type deal for him. I can tell you now he won't get that, but something in the 6-7 year 120 million+ range seems likely from the Mets, the Red Sox or the Angels. One thing in our favor is that the Yankees don't seem to be in the hunt, and they would obviously up the the ante.

On other free-agent hitters: I certainly feel that re-signing DeRosa should be a priority. He has a lot of interest out there, but should still come cheaper that what we've been paying our 3B the last several years (Rolen, Glaus). As for other corner outfielders, it's tough sledding. It's doubtful we will be in on Jason Bay, and the best hitters other than him and Holliday are all probably on the downside of their careers (Damon, Dye, Vlad, etc.). My preference would be to maybe trade for someone like Dan Uggla and move Shu back to LF.

On the Brad Penny signing: Love this deal, and not just because Penny is from the Tulsa area like myself and John. First, it's a one year deal (no long-term commitment with Carp and Albert needed extensions in the near future). Second, the Cardinals made a great move by promising Penny that they would not offer salary arbitration after the season. This means he'll be highly motivated to have a great year to possibly earn himself a big money, multi-year deal the next offseason. Penny has great stuff, but motivation has been an issue with him in the past, so I like the structure of this deal. I think there is a good chance he'll replace Pineiro's production and then some. Does this also close the door on Smoltz? I don't think so. Smoltz was never a guy you'd look at to make 30+ starts, so we could still sign him to be a 5th starter/reliever hybrid.

On the rest of the offseason: The Cards still have quite a bit of cash to spend, but other than DeRosa and the unlikely event they sign Holliday, it's hard to see where the money can be put to use on the free agent market. You may see the bullpen bolstered, but not likely with a closer and at low cost (man, I would love to have had Billy Wagner, but the Braves beat us to the punch). I hope that means they'll be actively looking at trades, because the offense certainly needs some help. The starting pitching looks solid already at least, even if Smoltz doesn't come back. Right now, you'd have to still consider us the favorites in the NL central, but a lot can change before spring training starts.



-Trey

UCB Roundtable - Question for 10/28/09

Well, here is my question for the year-end roundtable. I jumped on recent news and asked:

Is hiring Mark McGwire as the new hitting coach the right move for the organization?

Here are the responses I received, starting with our very own John:

All the PED stuff aside, this seems like a great move. Big Mac is 11th all time in OPS. If that's not enough to make you a great candidate for a hitting coach, I don't know what is. Whether he's able to translate that into a good coach is another story. There are some hurdles: he's a lefty and he's got a bit of an unorthodox swing. However, as Trey pointed out, he's tight with some of the players and TLR. I also like hiring Cardinals.

Yet, taking the PED brouhaha into consideration it just leaves a slightly unpleasant aftertaste. I just don't know what I think of bringing on someone who not only used by repeatedly lied about his use. Perhaps a way to justify it is simply point to the pervasive use of it, and say, "we're trying to move on." I don't know. It seems oddly similar to when there was lots of talk about bringing Bonds on board. Sure, on paper it looks like a great move, but will it cost us our soul?

-CJ (The Cardinal Virtue)

Daniel, from c70 at the bat added:

I don't know that I'd say I like the move, but I at least understand it and think it's a fine move to make.

I do think one of the side benefits to this is that it is going to make McGwire talk about his past, as it were. I know that Mike and Nick disagreed with me last night on the radio show, but I don't think McGwire takes himself out of the shadows and puts himself into the spotlight unless he's ready to deal with the issue.

It's not going to go away. Unless he gives a definitive statement and answers questions, it's going to follow him all year long. If he does do that, then he can more legitimately say, "Guys, I've answered that and I'm not talking about it again."

If he wants to be an effective hitting coach and not just a sideshow, he's got to get past the issue, at least for reasonable people.

As an actual coach, I'm interested to see what he can bring to the table. I know Schumaker's done wonders from working with him, but you also have some that still struggled after his instruction. We'll see what he can do with full-time access to players.

Jay Tierney, from Inside Pulse had this to say:

I've thought of a few things about this:

A. It's a way to try to lure Holliday back. I've heard he's close with McGwire, so what better way to get the top free agent hitter back than hiring him as a coach.

B. LaRussa is trying to get McGwire back in the spot light to clean up his image. Tony firmly believes that he'll be worth the media circus and this may help get Big Mac in the HOF. If it works, it'll also solidify LaRussa's resume. If it doesn't, it's written off as another stunt that LaRussa attempted (a la hitting the pitcher 8th, his funky rotation antics in Oakland, etc).

McRae was gone, there was no doubt about that. Like any hiring, there are good points and bad points: McGwire has worked well with hitters in the off-season (Skip being the best example), but he's also not helped some too (Chris Duncan anyone?). Yes, his OPS is high, but his batting average was only .263.

If McGwire can make it through all the questions, I think it'll be a good risk to see what he can do as the hitting coach.

Michael Reihn, from Whiteyball, finished the discussion with these words:

Mark McGwire is proven to be one of the top hitting coaches on the market. Should the Cardinals hire him? Will there be a fan backlash?

McGwire must address the PED issues from the onset in order to lessen the media scrutiny he will face. Many star players have moved past the issue to where it is a footnote (instead of the main byline) to their career. This is important to his image, his hall of fame chances and (less importantly) my opinion of him. Without addressing the issue, he could easily become a distraction to the team and a target for negative media. If he puts everything behind him, he could be a major coup for this team.

The Cardinals aren’t the first team to try to hire McGwire as a hitting coach and he isn’t some novelty act. He has a proven history of helping players become better hitters and could bring a lot to a team. His credentials are numerous and intriguing. Yes, he was a hall of fame caliber hitter, but a great hitter does not always translate into a great hitting coach (Ted Williams, for example). When people site his career as why he will/or won’t be a good hitting coach they are (respectfully) missing the point.

From what I gather, he brings many admirable qualities to the position. He supposedly has an eye for video and how it translates to each hitter, a varied approach to driving the ball (home run hitters and singles hitters), plate discipline teachings and a respect (from players) that may even be greater than Tony La Russa. You won’t see hitters tuning him out like they did McRae last year.

The fan backlash is overstated by the media (and bloggers). If you read the comment sections on the post dispatch, you would think that McGwire is going to have a rough time with the fans. What is amazing to me is how unrepresentative this form of media is to the masses. Most of the people that comment are the people that feel strongly against him being on the team. The Post Dispatch ran a poll online and found over 80% of the people were in favor of the move.

McGwire’s “celebrity” has its disadvantages, but there is a positive side. He has an added value of taking pressure off of Pujols. For the first time in many years, Albert will not be the main focus of sportswriters during spring training. This can only help our best hitter and make it easier for him to prepare.

The Cardinals are taking a chance on Big Mac, but winning is the main objective. He may have the ability to help them do this. After their first round flameout from last year, what do they have to lose?

Sincerely,

Michael Riehn

My own thoughts? I think it all comes down to team performance. Unless Big Mac comes completely clean before the season starts, he is going to be a distraction, but there is a very good chance he could improve our hitters. I big criticism of McRae was that he preached a free-swinging style. The Cards have been among the worst in the majors at drawing walks the last few years, especially if you take Albert out of the equation. Another area I see a need for improvement is hitting with runners in scoring position. If we improve under these two areas with McGwire, we'll win more games, and whatever distractions there are will be worth it. Maybe it's morally corrupt of me to think of it in such a bottom-line way, but that's the way I view baseball. Anyway, I appreciate everyone who participated. There is only a couple of more days left in the roundtable, so I hope everyone checks them out! Till next season......

Trey

Bill DeWitt III on UCB Radio Hour--Tonight!

Cardinal President Bill DeWitt III will be on with Dan, Nick and Mike! Tonight 6:30EST 5:30CST 11:30GMT!

-CJ

UCB Roundtable--2009 End of the Year

It's the end of the year roundtable for the UCB and Trey and I are both participating. You can check out the other questions here. Here's my quesiton and the replies it got:

Most of the questions so far, due to the time of the year, have been front-office-esque--as they should be. Yet let's switch gears for a second and prognosticate. Do you believe next year's team will be better than this year's team? Why or why not?

Daniel from C70 at the Bat: That's such a tough question given the different variables involved. On the whole, though, I'd probably have to say no for one big reason--the pitching.

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright put up ridiculous numbers this year. I can't imagine them improving on those results in 2010. They may get close, they may do well (and I figure they will) but two top Cy Young-worthy contributions is pretty hard.

Then you have to replace Joel Pineiro's stellar season. Kyle Lohse will hopefully be better, but he can't improve so much as to fill Pineiro's 2009 shoes. You will get a boost from not having Todd Wellemeyer in the rotation, hopefully replacing him with John Smoltz, but all in all the pitching numbers will probably come back to earth somewhat next year.

The offense could improve, especially if Matt Holliday or someone of that ilk is out there in the outfield instead of Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel, and I still expect the Cards to contend for October, but to expect them to do better than this year is a stretch in my book.

Our own Trey: I have to agree with Daniel on this one. While you'd expect that if we can get consistent contributions at 3B, SS, and LF for the entire season, we may have a better everyday line-up than last year, our pitching almost certainly has to take a step backwards. Daniel mentioned already the high levels of the starting pitching that will be tough to sustain, but you'd have to say the bullpen was much better than expected as well this year. That was a huge question mark coming into the season, and it was actually pretty solid for the most part. Maybe Hawksworth will stay there and continue be that solid set-up guy for Franklin, but I think there's a good chance there could be some issues in the mid-innings there next year. So overall, I'd expect us to contend in the central again, but not run away with it.

Mike from Stan Musial's Stance: One of my favorite non-Cardinal blogs is USS Mariner. Dave Cameron has repeatedly stated, in posts there over the last 3 years, the relative difficulty in taking an 85-team to a 90-win team, because of the amount of money that would need to be spent on players with a high enough WAR to affect the club's won/loss record.

Obviously we're not an 85-win team, having won 91 games in 2009. But I think the philosophy applies, especially when we consider what positions are question marks for 2010 (3B, LF, starting pitching), and the value of the players that manned those spots in 2009 who most likely won't be back in 2010 (specifically Holliday and Pineiro). The Cardinals probably don't have the money to put a Type A free-agent at 3B, in LF, and in the rotation - the kind of player that would provide a high enough WAR to push this team past 91 wins.

And as was already mentioned, improving on this year's team assumes returning players perform at least as well as they did this year. Reasonable for AP, and I would argue plausible for Wainwright, but probably not realistic for Carpenter given his injury history, Franklin given his regression to the mean in Aug/Sept, Ryan given a possible 'sophomore slump', etc.

So no, I don't think they'll be better. I'm hopeful Mozeliak will construct his roster so the team is AS good as they were this year - 91 wins will make us competitive for the NL Central and the Wild Card in 2010, if not the winner of one of those positions.

Michael from Whiteyball: The cause for optimism is the hitting, right handed middle relief, bottom of the rotation and defense. They almost have to have a better bench than last year (full season of Lugo, couple of guys hitting above .220).

The first half of the season, the Cardinals were weighed down by huge drop offs in expectations from the hitters. This is a list of batters by positions that were doing worse than their counterparts from the year before ( first half): LF, CF, RF, 3B, C, SS, P. That’s virtually everyone. Only second baseman Skip Schumaker, who was a huge drop off in defense from Adam Kennedy, and Albert Pujols (who was having a career best first half) were hitting above the positions from the previous year.

If they sign Holliday or someone of the Abreu ilk, the team will see massive improvements over a full season from LF, CF, 3B, SS and some improvement from 2B (especially backup) and RF (Ludwick could be in between 2008 and 2009).

The Cause for pessimism is top 3 starting pitchers and closer. The question isn’t will they drop off but by how much. The team could be a little better next year (with a good left fielder) or it could be slightly worse. 90 wins is a good guess at this early stage of the off-season.

-CJ

Rough...

It's been a rough week regarding the Cardinals and personally. Yet, I thought I'd share a brighter spot of my week: my 18 month old daughter and her favorite hat.

Heartbreak city

One great thing about being a Cardinals fan is that we make it to the post-season a lot, so there are a lot of playoff moments in our history. Most of those moments have been good, but a few have been ugly. John referenced the `87 series against the Twins, but today's game against the Dodgers looks likely to take it's place in Cardinal's lore also as one serious downer. Wainwright was masterful, making only a single mistake against Ethier. Unfortunately, he struggled to get through the eighth inning and looked to not have enough left to complete the game. After Trevor Miller retired Ethier to start the 9th, Franklin looked to have ended the game by getting Manny, and then a week fly ball from Loney. Unfortunately, Holliday dropped said fly for a two-base error and the rally was on. Certainly, Franklin also deserves some blame for not getting anyone else out, but it's not like he ever gave-up any hard-hit balls. They were just hit in the right places. It was just one of those days when the Baseball Gods seemed to be on the Dodgers side. I'm sure plenty of blame will be put on both Holliday and Franklin, and maybe rightfully so, but we had plenty of chances earlier in the game to give Wainwright more support, and we didn't. It's a tough one to swallow, but we are going home, and it's not over yet. To say it's the biggest start of Pineiro's life on Saturday would be a major understatement.



-Trey